Abstract
1. Introduction
1. Exurban growth is uniquely characterized by aesthetic preferences and individual choice. One of those important preferences in privacy.
Regions across the United States with scenic beauty and other natural amenities are experiencing rapid population growth and residential development. Exurban growth, or exurbanization, in particular in characterized by low-density residential settlement in rural areas valued for their aesthetic, recreational, and other consumption-oriented values (McCarthy 2008; Taylor 2011). A complex and varied picture of the drivers of exurbanization is emerging and the reasons that people move to scenic rural areas are as numerous as the communities that they form.
-For many exurbanites, natural amenities, such as scenic beauty, expansive vistas (Vukomanovic and Orr 2014), wilderness, recreational opportunities, and climate play an important role in in the decision to migrate. [ADD: Gosnell and Abrams 2011, McCarthy 2008; McGranahan 2008]
-Social and cultural connections to small-town rural life (Hines 2007) and a desire for a sense of community (Vogt 2011) can also be a draw for some exurbanites.
Privacy and solitude, often described as being unaware of other people when at home (Kondo et al. 2012), are important to many exurbanites who seek a seclusion or a "frontier living" experience (Hines 2007; Hines 2011). As many as 46% of amenity migrants in Washington State described finding "privacy" or "peace-and-quiet" as a primary purchase goal. Exurban development represents a unique land use often characterized by aesthetics - whether strictly related to perceptions of beauty or more broadly as principles or worldview expressed through outward appearance and actions - and driven by individual choice.
2. [AND] It's a rapidly-growing land use with significant impacts to both communities and ecosystems. Impacts depend on the spatial distribution of development.
a) area (and percentage) of land at exurban densities [and at other densities, for comparison]
b) how rapidly exurban areas are growing (e.g. rate of growth)
c) what are the land types that are converting to exurban
The per capita land conversion in exurban areas is much greater than for urban areas and that growth is seldom guided by growth management plans (Kondo et al. 2012). The rapid growth and dispersed nature of exurban development raises numerous ecological concerns, including changes to water quality and quantity [REF], altered fuel loads and fire regimes [REF], habitat fragmentation, and the spread of invasive species [REF].
-There are also impacts on communities (e.g. conflict between long-term residents and newcomers) - examples [REFS]
-Residential development drives the growth of other infrastructure and many of the ecological impacts of residential development depend on the spatial configuration of houses, associated infrastructure, in particular road networks (Vukomanovic et al. 2013; OTHER REFS). This spatial arrangement of houses depends on the drivers of exurbanization, where different preferences can lead to very different spatial arrangements
3. [BUT] Studies to date have been largely descriptive or done at scales where you lose that individual perspective.
-While work has been done to identify the drivers of exurbanization, very little is known about the spatial distribution of these preferences or the relative importance of some drivers relative to others.
-There have been limited attempts to integrate what has been learned directly from exurbanites about their reasons for moving to rural landscapes and the spatial pattern of development (Walker 2011). Interviews, survey, participant observation, focus groups, and other narratives provide valuable place-based information and context, however time and resource limitation make these approaches difficult to implement over landscape scales. Whether by norms of disciplinary practice or protocols designed to protect participant identity, reported results very seldom georeference narrative and survey data. Demographic and aggregated spatial analyses of the impacts and drivers of exurbanization have relied largely on country-level Census data (McGranahan 2008; Rudzitis et al. 2011), are valuable for understanding common drivers, such as climate (McGranahan 1999) or proximity to water (Mueser and Graves 1995), but miss individual perspectives. This earlier work is essential to identify what drivers to examine and questions to ask. However, these approaches limit our understanding of how preference are spatially distributed at finer scales, as well as the ability to ask questions about trade-offs.
4. [THEREFORE] We turn to a viewscapes approach that is informed by social science, but relies on a spatial representation to understand the interactions and trade-offs between drivers.
Analyses of demographic trends and
5. We a) mapped the historic distribution of suburban, exurban, and rural development prior to 2010 (great recession), b) analyzed size and privacy of exurban viewscapes relative to those in suburban and rural settings, c) we developed a predictive model of the probability of exurban settlements based on quantitative metrics of viewscape visual qualities. Application of the model is made possible by a new algorithm for computing spatially continuous, all-possible viewscape coverages for a region [highlight in abstract]
c) pro
To include in paragraph 5: The region is well-suited to studying drivers of exurban viewscape decisions as the rugged topography and low-height desert vegetation provide numerous scenic vistas AND local land-use policy does not restrict development of low-density housing and private roads.