Finally, consulting the COVID Tracking Project's historical data for the United States reveals that on the date the IHME's paper was published (March 30, 2020), the total number of COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States was 3,060, including 1 death from Guam and 6 from Puerto Rico. When we only include deaths from the 50 US states and DC, the number for March 30 thus drops to 3,053; as noted earlier, by May 5, 2020, that number had grown to 62,698. This increase of 62,698-3,053=59,645 deaths occurred over 36 days, reflecting about 59,645/36=1,657 new deaths per day on average during that time period. In the 86 days between May 5 and July 30, 2020 (the date to which these predictions apply), assuming a constant rate of growth in deaths, the number of total deaths accumulated will be 86*1,657=142,485, for a total of 62,698+142,485 = 205,813 deaths in the United States. By contrast, in order to have exactly the predicted number of deaths in the United States on July 30, we would need to accumulate exactly 81,111-62,698=18,413 additional deaths in the 86-day period between May 5 and July 30. This would require reducing new deaths per day nationally to an average of about 214--only about 12.9% of the average number for the 36 days between March 30 and May 5. This seems very unlikely given a recent White House report projecting that the number of new deaths per day would continue to increase into June, and would reach about 3,000 by June 1.\cite{reopen2020} Furthermore, extrapolating into the future for each state based on the average number of deaths per day in each state indicates that the 51 regions included here are almost exactly evenly split between those expected to exceed the IHME prediction (n=26) and those expected to fall below it (n=25). The difference between the IHME's best estimates for the number of deaths in each state by July 30 to the number predicted based on the linear trend just described is illustrated in the table below.
StatePredicted cumulative deathsPredicted based on trend since 3/30 (7/30)
New York10,24362,886
New Jersey4,10926,333
Massachusetts2,23113,564
Michigan4,06113,282
Illinois2,4548,847
Connecticut7738,369
Pennsylvania3,0948,213
California6,1097,321
Louisiana2,0816,553
Florida3,3424,672
Maryland8574,427
Indiana2,4404,200
Georgia3,1653,933
Ohio2,7333,486
Colorado9402,732
Virginia1,5432,258
Washington1,4292,234
Minnesota1,2801,427
Rhode Island2451,146
Wisconsin8531,119
Mississippi6751,012
District of Columbia132941
South Carolina768889
Nevada801852
Kentucky585836
Delaware228602
Texas5,8472,915
North Carolina2,4111,443
Missouri2,9771,182
Arizona1,6871,179
Alabama1,155989
Oklahoma898766
Tennessee1,551711
Iowa742623
New Mexico513507
Kansas669442
Oregon584331
New Hampshire318284
Nebraska437260
Arkansas707258
Idaho388203
Maine334186
West Virginia460167
Utah619160
Vermont386148
North Dakota16380
South Dakota20169
Hawaii35258
Montana25145
Wyoming13624
Alaska15423
2600.0%
2500.0%