Introduction
The global spread of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2), causing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic,
has been linked to climatic factors. This has a biological basis.
The spread of SARS-CoV-2 among people
is predominantly via respiratory droplets and aerosols, as well as
fomites (Cai et al., 2020) and possibly fecal–oral (Yeo et al., 2020).
Temperature and relative humidity can affect coronavirus transmission
(Casanova et al., 2010) through virus survival (at lower temperatures
coronaviruses survive longer) and the length of time infectious
respiratory matter stays suspended in the air (at lower humidity more
material stay suspended for longer) (Casanova et al., 2010; Chan et al.,
2011; Guionie et al., 2013).
In previous observational research, a negative relationship between
relative humidity and SARS cases has been found (Cai et al., 2007; Tan
et al., 2005), and a similar negative relationship with Middle East
respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) cases has been described
(Gardner et al., 2019; Altamimi and Ahmed, 2020). However, the
relationship with temperature is inconsistent: a positive relationship
has been described for SARS (Gardner et al., 2019) and MERS-CoV
(Altamimi and Ahmed, 2020), but a negative relationship has also been
observed for MERS-CoV (Gardner et al., 2019). Specifically for
SARS-CoV-2, a negative relationship between COVID-19 cases in China and
temperature and humidity has recently been described (Qi et al., 2020),
and more recently in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia we
described a significant negative association between COVID-19 cases
during the initial exponential phase of the epidemic and relative
humidity (Ward et al., 2020). In the current study we extend this
research to examine the effect of a greater number of climatic factors
on the occurrence of COVID-19 cases during both exponential and
descending phases of the epidemic, and investigate whether there are
regional and temporal differences in this relationship. This knowledge
is needed to guide public health interventions to successfully control
the spread of SARS-CoV-2.