Data availability statement
Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were
analyzed in this study.
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Tables and Figures
legends
Table
1.
Control strategies evaluated by the model.
Table
2.
Sensitivity and specificity estimates used for modeling each bTB-testing
strategy
Table 3.
Median (med), 2.5(q2.5), 25(q25), 75(q75), and 97.5 (q97.5) percentiles
for the 500 simulations of the time (years and months) and the number of
tests necessary to reach bTB-eradication, and to reach the officially
tuberculosis-free (OTF) status for the status quo and the six
alternative control strategies. The columns 3 to 12 show the eradication
estimates for the complete herd (adults and calves), and the adult
animals solely. The last five columns indicate the estimates for OTF.
Colors represent four different time categories: <3 years
(green), 3 to 6 years (grey), >6 to 9 years (coral), and
>9 years (red) or its respective months and number of tests
performed in that period.
Table 4.
bTB-prevalence estimates at the end of the 6, 12, 24 months of
simulating control strategies.
Figure 1.
Diagram representing the bTB-transmission compartments (Figure 1a)
including calves (top row) and adults (second row), and equations
driving the control strategies dynamics (Figure 1b). The number of
animals in each bTB-compartment is indicated as susceptible (S), occult
(O), reactors in subgroup Ra and Rb, and infectious (I). Transmission
rates between infectious and susceptible stages are represented by β,
and the duration of the occult, reactors a, and reactors b stages are
represented by λ1, λ2a,
λ2b. The equations for the probability of testing
positive to the control strategies included sensitivity (Se ),
specificity (Sp ), and correlation coefficients between negative
(ρD ) and positive (ρDc ) results, respectively.
Figure 2.
Median, 5th, and 95th percentile estimates of
bTB-prevalence per month simulated for the model output of 500
iterations in a 500-size herd, with the application of status quo(Skin_series) and six alternative strategies. The red vertical line
indicates when 50% of the simulations reached bTB-eradication for each
strategy, and the shadow shows the range of months in which eradication
is reached for 90% of the iterations.
Figure 3.
Median, and 95th percentile estimates of
bTB-prevalence simulated for the model output of 500 iterations in a
500-size herd, with the application of status quo (Skin_series)
and six alternative strategies. Simulated estimates for bTB-prevalence
in adults, representing 75% of the herd population (pink), and
estimates for calves representing 25% of the population (turquoise) are
shown per month.
Figure 4.
Median and 95th percentile of the proportion of animals
testing positive (pink), and testing true positive (turquoise) thestatus quo (0.Skin_series) and the six alternative control
scenario per month.
Appendix: Supplementary material
Figure S1.
Figure S2.