An expert-based risk ranking framework for assessing potential pathogens in the live baitfish trade
Running title: Expert-based ranking of pathogens in live baitfish
Authors: MC McEachran1,2 , F Sampedro3, DA Travis2,4 , NBD Phelps1,2*
* Corresponding author
1Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA
2 Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota
3 Environmental Health Sciences Division, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota
4 One Health Division, Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota
Summary :
As global trade of live animals expands, there is increasing need to assess the risks of invasive organisms, including pathogens, that can accompany these translocations. The movement and release of live baitfish by recreational anglers has been identified as a particularly high-risk pathway for the spread of aquatic diseases in the United States. To provide risk-based decision support for preventing and managing disease invasions from baitfish release, we developed a hazard identification and ranking tool to identify the pathogens that pose the highest risk to wild fish via this pathway. We created a screening protocol and semi-quantitative stochastic risk ranking framework, combining published data with expert elicitation (n=25) and applied the framework to identify high-priority pathogens for the bait supply in Minnesota, USA. Normalized scores were developed for seven risk criteria (likelihood of transfer, prevalence in bait supply, likelihood of colonization, current distribution, economic impact if established, ecological impact if established, and host species) to characterize a pathogen’s ability to persist in the bait supply and cause impacts to wild fish species of concern. The generalist macroparasiteSchizocotyle acheilognathi was identified as presenting highest overall threat, followed by the microsporidian Ovipleistophora ovariae, and viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus. Our findings provide risk-based decision support for managers charged with maintaining both the recreational fishing industry and sustainable, healthy natural resources. The ranking process, implemented here for a single state case study, provides a standardized conceptual framework that could be applied across jurisdictions to inform risk-based management of the live baitfish pathway.
Acknowledgements: Funding for this project was provided by the Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund as recommended by the Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center and the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources. We thank the 25 expert stakeholders whose participation helped to inform this study.
Conflict of interest : None of the authors or experts whose opinion was elicited in this study have a conflict of interest to declare.
Ethics approval : This research was reviewed by the University of Minnesota’s Institutional Review Board and determined to be “not human research” (STUDY00007170).
Keywords : risk assessment, hazard prioritization, hazard identification, decision analysis, baitfish