Tab. 3- Sensitivity of ASF persistence to changes in the main epidemiological and demographic parameters. The values result from a global regression-based sensitivity analysis based on standardized input values. Sensitivity values significantly different from zero are highlighted in bold font.
FIGURE LEGENDS
Fig. 1 – Epidemiological compartments used to build the spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based model of ASF spread into a wild boar population. In scenario 1 only direct and carcass-mediated transmissions were considered. In scenario 2 the three transmission mechanisms were included. The following notations are used for model parameters: γ = disease lethality; χ = convalescents infectious period; Ι = Carcass infectious period; M = natural mortality rate; h = hunting rate.
Fig. 2 – Average daily proportions of ASF infected (a) and sero-prevalent (b) wild boars, resulting from a model in which disease transmission occurred either directly (infected-susceptible) or through an infected carcass.
Fig. 3 – Daily virus persistence probabilities associated to each of the two simulated scenarios of the spatially explicit, individual-based model of ASF in wild boar. Scenarios 1 include only direct and carcass-mediated virus transmission, whereas scenario 2 also includes survivor-mediated transmission.
Fig. 4 – Proportion of ASF virus infections occurring with each of the three simulated transmission pathways (a), and their relative distribution within and between wild boar social groups (b).
Fig. 5 – Functional relationship between wild boar population density and the proportion of ASF infections occurring through infected carcasses.
Fig. 6 – Relationship between the minimum observed wild boar density during the simulated 10-year period and the ASF persistence expressed in days.