Scenario 1 (direct + carcasses) Scenario 2 (direct + carcasses + convalescents)
Invasion phase (years 1-2) Invasion phase (years 1-2) Invasion phase (years 1-2)
ASFV+ 0.05% (0.01 – 0.13) 0.07% (0.01 – 0.17)
ASFV+ & Ab+ 0.09% (0.01 – 0.21) 0.04% (0.01 – 0.11)
Ab+ 0.06% (0.01 – 0.18) 0.08% (0.01 – 0.21)
Population density (wild boar / km2) 2.64 (2.58 – 2.69) 2.62 (2.54 – 2.70)
First epidemic wave (years 3-4) First epidemic wave (years 3-4) First epidemic wave (years 3-4)
ASFV+ 0.67% (0.31 – 0.92) 0.74% (0.42 – 1.14)
ASFV+ & Ab+ 0.44% (0.23 – 0.68) 0.49% (0.27 – 0.73)
Ab+ 1.32% (1.04 – 2.39) 1.90% (1.19 – 2.55)
Population density (wild boar / km2) 1.31 (0.94 – 1.51) 1.13 (0.87 – 1.44)
Endemic phase (years 5-7) Endemic phase (years 5-7) Endemic phase (years 5-7)
ASFV+ 0.10% (0.01 – 0.33) 0.13% (0.02 – 0.35)
ASFV+ & Ab+ 0.11% (0.02 – 0.23) 0.09% (0.01 – 0.22)
Ab+ 1.64% (1.40 – 2.37) 2.02% (1.61 – 2.46)
Population density (wild boar / km2) 0.92 (0.55 – 1.02) 0.87 (0.51 – 0.98)
Second epidemic wave (years 8-10) Second epidemic wave (years 8-10) Second epidemic wave (years 8-10)
ASFV+ 0.50% (0.16 – 0.66) 0.55% (0.17 – 0.60)
ASFV+ & Ab+ 0.60% (0.22 – 0.90) 0.36% (0.10 – 0.58)
Ab+ 1.95% (1.20 – 2.84) 2.19% (1.30 – 2.92)
Population density (wild boar / km2) 2.19 (1.91 – 2.59) 2.03 (1.87 – 2.54)
5-year persistence probability 55% 64%
10-year persistence probability 52% 57%