2.6 Analysis of model results
After the parameter optimization process, we performed the actual model
runs and compared the disease course under the sole direct and
carcass-mediated transmission (scenario 1), and under the action of all
three mechanisms (direct, carcass-mediated, convalescents; scenario 2).
For each scenario, we ran the model 1,000 times. In each iteration and
at each time step, we recorded the number of infected individuals
(ASF+), seropositive individuals
(Ab+), and the number of both virus and seropositive
wild boar (ASF+ & Ab+). We also
kept track of the number of infected carcasses and of total population
size. We stopped model running as soon as the virus disappeared from the
population and had no more chances to be transmitted through the
pathways considered in that specific scenario. In such a case we also
recorded the year and day of virus extinction. For each simulated day,
we also recorded the number of ASF infections occurring through each of
the three transmission routes, thus obtaining an estimate of how
relevant each source of infection was in virus transmission and
persistence.