Hypotheses Predictions
H1. Infection risk increases with proximity to infected individuals due to higher chances of contact
P1.1: positive and strongest effect of the proportion of infected individuals in the ’high-contact’ (0-2km) P1.2: positive but weaker effects of the proportion of infected individuals in ’medium-contact’ (2-5km) and ’low-contact’ (5-10km) zones P1.3: no effect of the proportion of infected individuals in the ’no-contact’ (>10km) zone
H2. Infection risk increases with relatedness to infected individuals due to kin-based social structure
P2.1: positive effect of relatedness to infected individuals across contact zones (0-10km) P2.2: no effect of relatedness to infected individuals in the ’no-contact’ zone (>10km)
H3. Effect of relatedness on infection risk will decline with distance to infected individuals due to social structure and spatial clustering
P3.1: positive effect of relatedness and proportion of infected individuals in the ’high-contact’ and potentially ’medium-contact’ zones P3.2: positive effect of the proportion of infected individuals and no effect of relatedness in the ’low-contact’ zone P3.3 no effects of relatedness and proportion of infected individuals in the ’no-contact’ zone