CONCLUSIONS
In this study, the SWAT model was successfully applied to a
Mediterranean watershed in south Portugal in areas under desertification
risk to evaluate the effect of the current land management (BAU) on SE
rates under present and future climatic scenarios. SE susceptibility
maps allowed to appreciate the role played by a combination of relevant
factors in determining SE rate, highlighting the suitability of SWAT
model as a valid tool for simulating the impacts of climate variability
on streamflow and sediment load and for creating extremely useful tool
of land management for expert and not experts of the land management
sector. Overall, our data show that future CC in the study area will
create on average drier and warmer conditions with a slight increase in
extreme events which will result in a very variable spatial distribution
of areas under different SE risk, going from areas were SE will diminish
compared to the actual climatic conditions and areas where the problem
will further increase. The fact that the majority of these areas is
currently under managed land cover, requires immediate attention ad
adequate measures. This kind of tool might be of great help to inform
and raise awareness in farmers, animal breeders and land owner. Results
also underlined that, although the changing climate might exacerbate the
conditions in the areas more at risk, in several areas of the basin SE
rates with the actual conditions are already beyond the recommended
threshold to maintain a sustainable equilibrium between soil formation
and soil loss, posing serious risk of desertification in the near
future.
Supplementary materials . Supplementary information related to
the article is given in the following supplementary file (to be added by
the journal).
Author contributions . The idea of the work was conceived by
Gianluigi Busico, Micòl Mastrocicco and Simona Castaldi, the data
processing was made by Gianluigi Busico, Silvia C.P. Calvalho and
Eleonora Grilli. The original draft was produced by Gianluigi Busico and
while the quality data control was made by Eleonora Grilli and Silvia
C.P. Calvalho. Final review, visualization and writing were completed by
Micòl Mastrocicco and Simona Castaldi.
Competing interests . The authors declare that they have no
conflicts of interest.