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\begin{document}

\title{Timing of Drought Onset Controls Hydrological Drought Responses in
Tropical Catchments}



\author[1,1]{Aparna Raut}%
\author[1,1]{Poulomi Ganguli}%
\author[2,2]{Thomas Wöhling}%
\author[3,3]{Rohini Kumar}%
\affil[1]{Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur}%
\affil[2]{Technische Universität Dresden}%
\affil[3]{Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ}%


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  \date{June 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Understanding onset of droughts and its potential linkage to resulting
responses like severity (deficit volume) is crucial for providing timely
information related to drought sectors including the cultivation
planning and monitoring crop productivity. Using high-quality daily
observed streamflow records from 82 medium-to-large sized catchments
over (tropical) peninsular India, we show that the variability in onset
timing drives the severity of hydrological droughts. The strength of
onset timing-severity relationships using observed records indicate
seasonality of rainfall and catchment characteristics mainly modulate
hydrological drought responses in peninsular India, which is not readily
apparent from land-surface model simulations. The observed trend for
mean onset of drought depicts delayed occurrence for more than half of
the catchments. Around one-third of the catchments shows a stronger
non-linear significant dependency (\textgreater{}0.7) between severity
and onset of drought. The findings of the study highlight the need for
accounting feedback between drought onset and severity and their
concurrent changes for seasonal-to-sub-seasonal predictability of
droughts; and contributes to discussions on building resilience to
extreme droughts in a changing climate.%
\end{abstract}%



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