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\begin{document}

\title{Screening tree-ring chronologies for hydrologic reconstruction with
lagged regression}



\author[1]{David Meko}%
\author[1]{Anabel Winitsky}%
\author[2]{Alan Taylor}%
\author[3]{Franco Biondi}%
\affil[1]{University of Arizona}%
\affil[2]{Penn State University}%
\affil[3]{University of Nevada, Reno}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Reconstructions of river discharge and other hydrologic variables often
exploit large available networks of tree-ring chronologies from multiple
species and hydrologic settings. A common early step in such studies is
screening to reduce the predictor data set and focus on chronologies
with a strong hydrologic signal. A stepwise regression approach to
screening is proposed and illustrated for reconstruction of April 1
snow-water equivalent (SWE) at three snow courses in the northern Sierra
Nevada and Lake Tahoe region from a multi-species tree-ring network. SWE
is regressed separately on each chronology lagged t-2 to t+2 years from
the year of SWE. A chronology is accepted based on specified criteria
for temporal stability of signal and skill of the lagged model in
predicting SWE outside the calibration space. A cross-validation
stepwise cutoff rule is applied to guard against over-fitting the lagged
model. Illustration for a network of 23 chronologies of five
snow-adapted species (Juniperus occidentalis, Pinus jeffreyi, Pinus
ponderosa, Abies magnifica, and Tsuga mertensiana) underscores the
critical importance of lags in the tree-ring response to SWE. For Abies
and Tsuga, in particular, chronologies passing screening are
characterized by lagged models with a positive coefficient on the year
following the hydrologic anomaly (deep snowpack this year, wide ring the
following year) and no dependence or a negative coefficient on the
current year (deep snowpack, narrow current ring). The SWE signal is
strongest for one particular Juniperus chronology whose regression
explains 39\% of the SWE variance at two snow courses. The strength of
SWE signal varies greatly over sites within species. More than half of
the Juniperus and Pinus chronologies were rejected by screening because
of either weak or temporally unstable signal. A repeat of the regression
screening using water-year precipitation (Global Historical Climate
Network) instead of SWE suggests that different subsets of chronologies
are optimal depending on the target hydologic variable. Few chronologies
have a significant signal for the residual of SWE regressed on
water-year precipitation. This suggests little snow-specific information
on the moisture signal in annual ring width. Sub-annual ring
measurements and quantitative wood anatomy are suggested as possible
ways to help discriminate the rain and snow signals in tree rings from
the region.%
\end{abstract}%



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