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\begin{document}

\title{Shifting Drivers and Trends in Territorial Reactive Nitrogen Emissions
for Canadian Provinces Over Three Decades}



\author[1]{Sibeal McCourt}%
\author[1]{Graham MacDonald}%
\affil[1]{McGill University}%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Connecting the sources of reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions to downstream
environmental impacts is challenging, since Nr ``cascades'' through
sequential ecosystems. It is therefore important to examine a
jurisdiction's overall Nr emissions to gain perspective on whether total
levels and specific forms of Nr emissions are being reduced. We study
subnational (provincial) trends and variations in Nr emissions in Canada
over 30 years (1990-2017) to examine the effects of key policy,
socioeconomic, and technological changes on Nr emissions. We use data
from national Nr emissions inventories, agricultural nutrient models,
and wastewater treatment reports to estimate specific (N2O, NOx, NH3,
and NO3), total (Gg N) and per capita (Kg N / capita) Nr emissions by
province. We divide the initial sources of Nr emissions into 1)
agricultural-related emissions, 2) fossil-fuel emissions, and 3) waste
management emissions. Preliminary results show that annual total Nr
emissions in Canada increased between 1990-2000 (1250 Gg to 1490 Gg),
and have since decreased (to 1180 Gg). There was a redistribution of the
main species of Nr, with decreases of NOx from fossil fuels (from 660 to
488 Gg Nr / year) and increases in agricultural Nr emissions (from 452
Gg to 537 Gg Nr / year). Provincial trends vary. Overall NOx emissions
decreased across all provinces due to more stringent vehicle
regulations, except in Alberta, where NOx emissions from export-oriented
oil production increased. The increase in national agricultural
emissions comes primarily from Saskatchewan whose combined agricultural
emissions increased from 43 Gg to 97 Gg Nr year. Improving agricultural
nitrogen-use efficiency, especially in these provinces, would be a key
area for reducing Canada's Nr emissions. However, given that diesel and
gasoline vehicles still contribute 121 Gg Nr / year, electrifying
vehicle fleets would also have considerable potential for reducing Nr
emissions. Our study demonstrates the variation in and reconfiguration
of drivers of Nr emissions at the sub-national scale in Canada,
emphasizing the need to consider local contexts and relative
contributions of different economic sectors when examining national Nr
emissions.%
\end{abstract}%



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\verb`essoar.10509066.1.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/555294/articles/605961-shifting-drivers-and-trends-in-territorial-reactive-nitrogen-emissions-for-canadian-provinces-over-three-decades}

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