As a case in point, we look at Augur and Gnosis, the prediction markets. Let us begin by plotting returns (Figure 9), defined as the current dollar value of a $1 investment at the time of token sale. We identify peaks at 59.27x (Augur) and 12.16x (Gnosis), so from an investment perspective, both tokens show different performance. But what are the sources of such dissimilarity?