A more complex model has the form Price = a + b*sma(wallet_users, 21)*sma(wallet_users, 37) + c*wallet_public² — d*exchange — e*gateway*sma(wallet_users, 21)*sma(wallet_users, 37)
From May to December the use of a particular wallet created support levels of 21 and 37 days (using simple moving averages) and it had the bigger impact of all variables discovered (increasing the use of this wallet has a positive impact on price 100% of the times). This means that the usage of this service serves like a “canary in the mine”, i.e a prolonged decreased in usage (being all conditions equal, such as not having a similar alternative replacing the use of the wallet) will indicate weakening demand fundamentals.