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\begin{document}

\title{Reconstructing mountain goat history in the Olympic Mountains, USA,
reveals relative contributions of reproductive rate, juvenile mortality,
and adult female mortality on population growth}



\author[1]{Melissa Oscarson}%
\author[2]{Erin Landguth}%
\author[1]{David Wallin}%
\affil[1]{Western Washington University}%
\affil[2]{University of Montana}%


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  \date{May 21, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Between 1925 -- 1929, approximately 12 non-native mountain goats
(Oreamnos americanus) were translocated from Alaska and British Columbia
to the foothills of the Olympic Range, USA. By 1970, descendants of
these goats had colonized the entire Olympic Range and concerns about
the management of this introduced species developed as damage to alpine
soil and vegetation occurred. A series of removals reduced the
population from 1,175 in 1983 to 389 goats by 1990, followed by a period
a stasis and growth indicated again in 2011 and 2016. We used empirical
demographic and genetic data to parameterize a population genetics
individual-based simulation model of the Olympic Range mountain goat
population. We calibrated the model to simulate the population
trajectory for Olympic mountain goats from establishment in 1925 through
the 1983 census, and validated model dynamics by simulating the period
from 1990 to 2016. Modeled population dispersal closely tracked
anecdotal reports. However, observed heterozygosity did not align with
published research, suggesting a process not accounted for within the
simulation model, such as a bottleneck, founder effect, or population
trajectory dynamics. Sensitivity analyses showed that changes in annual
reproductive rate had the greatest influence on population trajectories,
followed by juvenile mortality and adult female mortality, respectively.
The modeled population showed that approximately 80\% of the total
animals removed during the 1980's needed to be female in order for the
observed population stasis to occur. This model has the potential to be
used more widely with established or introduced mountain goat
populations in other regions.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`POPECOL-Main-Document-SimulationModelMTGoatsONP_13Aug2023.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/652309/articles/659893-reconstructing-mountain-goat-history-in-the-olympic-mountains-usa-reveals-relative-contributions-of-reproductive-rate-juvenile-mortality-and-adult-female-mortality-on-population-growth}

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`POPECOL-Figures-SimulationModelMTGoatsONP_13Aug2023.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/652309/articles/659893-reconstructing-mountain-goat-history-in-the-olympic-mountains-usa-reveals-relative-contributions-of-reproductive-rate-juvenile-mortality-and-adult-female-mortality-on-population-growth}

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