5 Summary
We present recurrence estimates from geologic and geodetic data for the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, summarized by fault section. Fourteen fault sections divide the subduction interface into 95- to 540-km-long portions that reflect observed or inferred trends in rupture behavior along strike, geodetic coupling, and geologic structure. The recurrence estimates can be used to provide constraints for seismic hazard models. Geologic data are interpreted as reflecting the relatively rarer (~220 - 1,000 year) participation of model fault sections in Mw ≥ 8.5 ruptures, while geodetic data are consistent with moment accumulation rates corresponding to much more frequent (~50 - 250 year) recurrence of Mw 8.0 - 8.5 ruptures along most fault sections. Our analysis indicates that the rates of Mw ≥ 8 ruptures is higher than previously assumed, especially west of Kodiak Island where geologic and geodetic data have not previously been considered together.