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\begin{document}

\title{Mechanistic Links Between Climatic Forcing and Model-based Plankton
Dynamics in the Strait of Georgia, Canada}



\author[1]{Karyn D. Suchy}%
\author[1]{Susan E. Allen}%
\author[2]{Elise Marie Black Olson}%
\affil[1]{University of British Columbia}%
\affil[2]{Princeton University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 13, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Large scale climate indices such as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation
(NPGO) have been linked to variability in both phytoplankton and
zooplankton, yet the mechanisms by which they are linked remain unknown.
We used a three-dimensional coupled biophysical model, SalishSeaCast, to
determine the mechanistic links between the NPGO and plankton dynamics
in the Strait of Georgia, Canada. First, we compared bottom-up processes
during NPGO positive (cold-phase) and negative (warm-phase) years. Then,
we conducted a series of model experiments to determine the effects of
the NPGO on local physical drivers by switching individual parameters
between a typical warm and cold year. The model showed that higher SST
and weaker winds contributed to an earlier increase in spring diatom
biomass during warm-phase years. Due to the conditions set up during the
spring, warm-phase years exhibited lower overall summer diatom biomass
and an earlier shift to nanoflagellate-dominance compared to cold-phase
years. Our systematic model experiments revealed that variability in
wind-driven resupply of nutrients to the surface waters during the
summer had the most significant impact on diatom biomass, and ultimately
on the food available to zooplankton grazers. The Z1 and Z2 model
classes grazed on a higher proportion of nanoflagellates during the
summer of warm-phase years, suggestive of a poorer quality diet consumed
during warm years. Results from this study are relevant in the context
of other climate signals (e.g., El Ni\selectlanguage{ngerman}ño) favouring weaker winds or
increased stratification, which would limit the amount of nutrients
being replenished to the surface waters.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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